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The Dodo |
It is the biggest issue on
this planet. Between 80 and 400 species go extinct every day. It should be on the front page of every
newspaper, every day, it's that huge.
But it barely exists as an issue at all.
Why is that?
Firstly, though, I want to explain in detail why I think
that the Sixth Extinction is so important.
And then I want to offer up some explanation as to why we are ignoring
it. Finally, I suggest what we might do
about it.
A brief history of 5 extinctions:
In the last 500 million years there have been five mass extinctions. The most famous of them was the most recent
one (the Late Cretaceous) which happened 65 million years ago when an asteroid
hit the planet and wiped out the dinosaurs.
The biggest mass extinction - which killed 96% of all species - was the
Late Permian 245 million years ago. An
extinction becomes a mass extinction when 75% of species are wiped out. The chart below indicates all 5 mass
extinctions:
The reason for all the 5 previous mass extinctions is
geophysical. They were caused by huge basalt floods, catastrophic methane
releases, asteroid impacts or natural climate change.
The big difference between the earlier 5 extinctions and the
current sixth extinction is that this is the first time that an extinction has
been caused by a single rogue species. Additionally, the sixth extinction is
happening at a far faster rate than previous extinctions. Between 10 and 100 times faster.
A brief history of the
sixth extinction:
The current extinction (sometimes called the Holocene
Extinction or the Anthropocene Extinction) has three phases:
Phase 1 is referred to as the Pleistocene Megafauna
extinction which occurred between 100,000 and 10,000 years ago, and seemed to
coincide with the time that humans entered new continents. Whilst there is a
lot of evidence that humans played a large part in this extinction event,
recent evidence suggests that natural Climate Change might also have played a
significant part. For this reason many
scientists do not include this phase in the Anthropocene Extinction.
Phase 2 of the extinction started about 10,000 years
ago when humans started to live in cities at the beginning of the Neolithic or
Agricultural Revolution. It was a time
when the human population grew very quickly, and started to encroach
increasingly on the wild domain.
Phase 3 began around about 1800 with the Industrial Revolution.
This was a time of increasing use of fossil fuels, economic activity, international
trade and minerals exploitation. As the
Industrial Revolution morphed into the Technological Revolution (1960s onwards)
extinction rates have increased further.
The current rate of species extinctions is not known fully
because only a million species have been recorded, yet it is believed that
there could be between 8 and 12 million species on the planet. Some species will go extinct without being
known about.
The numbers:
in 1990 the celebrated biologist E O Wilson estimated that
30,000 species per year (or three species per hour) are being driven to
extinction. A later report - using a technique
known as the "species-area theory" - suggested that the rate of
extinction could be as high as 140,000 species per year. Subsequent studies have indicated that these
figures could be too high, but all scientists involved in the study of
extinctions recognise that the current rate is about 100 to 1,000 times the
rate of background extinction. Perhaps
more significant is the fact that the current rate of extinctions is between 10
and 100 times more rapid than any of the five previous mass extinctions.
The following chart indicates just how close certain classes
of species are to reaching the 75% threshold for mass extinction...
But more important than the rate of species extinction is
the rate of wildlife population loss. A
recent report of the International Union of Conservation of Nature (IUCN)
stated that the population of invertebrates has fallen by 45% in the last 35
years. (Invertebrates are those animals without a backbone like insects, worms
and crustaceans). This is a similar rate to that of the larger animals
(vertebrates) which is more widely publicised.
This has meant that some species have become so decimated
that they are close to extinction. Currently - according to the IUCN Red List -
23,000 species (out of 65,000 assessed species) are threatened with
extinction. This is 21% of all known
mammals, 30% of all known amphibians, 12% of all known birds, 28% of reptiles,
37% of freshwater fishes, 70% of plants, 35% of invertebrates assessed so far under
threat.
The list is shocking:
99% of Rhinos gone since 1914. 97% of Tigers gone since 1914. 90% of Lions gone since 1993. 90% of Sea Turtles gone since 1980. 90% of Monarch Butterflies gone since 1995. 90% of Big Ocean Fish gone since 1950. 80% of Antarctic Krill gone since 1975. 80% of Western Gorillas gone since 1955. 60% of Forest Elephants gone since 1970. 50% of the Great Barrier Reef
gone since 1985. 40% of Giraffes gone
since 2000. 40% of ocean phytoplankton
gone since 1950. 30% of Marine Birds
gone since 1995. 70% of Marine Birds
gone since 1950. 28% of Land Animals
gone since 1970. 28% of All Marine
Animals gone since 1970.
The most famous of all species to have gone extinct in recent
years is the Dodo (see picture above).
But how long will it be before we are mourning the loss of such iconic
creatures on a daily basis? And how long
before nature as we know it is so fragmented and disrupted that the life
support system for homo sapiens is no longer there?
Scientist estimate that we could lose half of all species by
the end of this century. So we are
probably looking at the "end of nature" round about the end of
the 22nd century.
Extinction vs Human
Population:
At the same time that the extinction rates of species is
increasing, the population of human beings is also increasing as shown in the
following chart. The correlation is too
obvious to miss.
Note clearly how both curves accelerate steeply after the
end of the second World War. The
substantial part of the current extinction is just 70 years long!
How has this current extinction
happened?
There are a number of reasons why nature has been decimated
in such large numbers. They include:
- Human
Population increase.
- Space
encroachment into wildlife areas through agriculture and urbanisation.
- Climate
Change.
- Ocean
Acidification.
- Mining
and energy extraction reducing habitats and polluting watercourses.
- Proliferation
of Insecticides and Herbicides.
- Air
and Water pollution from Industrial processes.
- International
trade spreading organisms.
- Rainforest
destruction for logging and mass plantations.
- Desertification.
- Over
fishing.
- Trophy
hunting.
In short, this extinction
is in the hands of one species; homo sapiens.
Why is this not headline
news?
The above list of extinction reasons describes - in total -
our capitalist industrial civilisation.
If we were to reverse this extensive extinction, we would need an
equally extensive sea change in the direction taken by our civilisation. Is this going to happen?
No wonder we are ignoring
the problem. The solution is just too
inconvenient. Best to sweep it under the
carpet or kick it into the long grass.
But what should we do to
stop this extinction?
We would need to:
- Work
less, earn less and consume less.
- Boycott
goods from abroad.
- Refuse
to buy products that require destructive mining.
- Steer
clear of anything that made use of chemicals.
- Throw
nothing away.
- Stop
doing anything that causes excess greenhouse gas emissions.
- Eat far less meat.
- Travel
using non motorised transportation.
- Have
no more that one (or two) children.
- Move
towards a steady state economy.
In brief, we need to
de-industrialise,
de-capitalise and
de-populate.
This sounds a bit extreme. But any deep analysis of this problem will
always result in the need for radical solutions. To go back to a time when the extinction rate
was close to the background rate we might need to return to the late 1700s -
just before the Industrial Revolution.
That was a time which might just be regarded as genuinely sustainable.
Genuine sustainability - where it is imagined that human
beings will be on this planet for at least 100 million more years - forces us
to presume that humans must allow for enough room and resources for a rich
diversity of species to live. Living simply ... so that others may simply live.